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University Of Sportsbooks · Site Admin Joined: 23 Feb 2008 Posts: 136

Utah State +8.5
Wed Mar 19 '08 10:00p
Utah State ranked #1 in the nation in offensive field goal percentage – better than Kansas, better than Georgetown, better than any of the 340 other teams in college basketball. And it’s not even a close race – the Aggies were a percentage point and a half better than the Jayhawks, who ranked second in the nation in this statistical category. Quite simply, this team takes good shots on nearly every possession. Head coach Stew Morrill’s offense is extremely difficult to defend; even tougher for an opponent that hasn’t seen it before and has only a few days to prepare defensively.

Utah State was not a great road team this year by any stretch of the imagination, winning only five of their 13 road contests. But when the Aggies lost on the highway, their good shooting was enough to keep them in the game – a three point loss at San Jose St, a five point loss at Hawaii and a five point loss at Nevada in their last three road defeats. It’s surely worth noting that Utah State won their last two road games of the season by 19 points or more, showing dramatic signs of improvement in hostile environments as the season progressed. But their overall road record gives us solid value here in a game that they won’t need to win in order to cover the pointspread.

Road underdogs went 9-3 ATS on the opening night of the two ‘other’ tournaments (NIT & CBI). Home courts simply don’t mean as much in the lesser tournaments as they did during the regular season. Illinois State is still nursing a minor hangover from their NCAA snub, and, despite their 15-1 home court straight up record, they only finished 7-7 ATS at the Redbird Arena this year. Their 3-6 ATS mark at home down the stretch of the Missouri Valley campaign including an 0-4 ATS mark when laying seven points or more gives us all the confidence we need to fade the Redbirds at home tonight. (#655) Take Utah State.

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